Atiku’s Fuel Subsidy Promise: A Political Gamble to Deceive Nigerians, Truncates Tinubu’s Reforms

By Chief (Mrs.) Esther Orighomisan Okotie-Eboh

Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, Nigeria’s economic landscape has undergone significant changes. While the immediate impact of the reform has been painful for households and businesses, its benefits are increasingly visible at the macroeconomic and government levels, particularly in public finances and the distribution of resources to states and local governments.

The removal of the subsidy has drastically reduced the financial burden previously placed on the Federal Government to keep petrol prices artificially low. With more resources accruing to the Federation Account, federal, state and local governments have had access to increased allocations, providing greater fiscal space to fund public programmes and development projects.

According to figures released by the Federal Government, the petrol subsidy and foreign-exchange reforms generated approximately ₦15.8 trillion in additional resources between June 2023 and December 2025. States and local governments received a substantial share of these resources, giving subnational governments greater capacity to meet their financial obligations and undertake development initiatives.

By 2026, the reforms had also contributed to efforts to stabilise Nigeria’s public finances and strengthen the country’s external position. Although, the reforms have imposed significant short-term costs on citizens, the argument remains that continuing with structural reforms is necessary if Nigeria is to escape the cycle of unsustainable government spending.

Another major development arising from the reform is the renewed emphasis on domestic refining. The removal of the subsidy and the movement towards a market-based downstream petroleum sector have created stronger incentives for private investment in refining, distribution and other areas of the petroleum industry.

The emergence and expansion of the Dangote Refinery represents one of the most significant developments in this regard. As domestic refining capacity increases, Nigeria has the potential to meet a greater proportion of its petroleum demand with locally refined products rather than depending almost entirely on imported petrol.

This development could also reduce the country’s exposure to foreign-exchange pressures associated with the importation of refined petroleum products. Instead of spending scarce foreign exchange importing products that can increasingly be produced domestically, Nigeria can retain more value within its economy and create opportunities across the petroleum value chain.

The old subsidy regime was also associated with persistent concerns over transparency, smuggling, diversion and the difficulty of accurately determining the actual volume of petrol consumed within the country. The removal of the subsidy has eliminated the need for government to continually determine how much should be paid to bridge the gap between the official price and the actual market cost.

The reform has further opened the downstream petroleum sector to greater participation by marketers. With different players able to source and distribute petroleum products, the sector is gradually moving away from a system heavily dependent on government intervention. This has also helped reduce some of the long queues that Nigerians experienced at filling stations under the old arrangement.

There is also an argument that the reforms have sent a signal to domestic and international investors that Nigeria is prepared to confront some of its long-standing structural economic challenges.

It was also reported that capital inflows reached a six-year high of $23 billion in 2025, although it would be inaccurate to attribute the entire increase solely to the removal of petrol subsidy.

Atiku, who is now running to become the president of the country under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has argued that such an intervention would help reduce transportation costs and the broader burden of living expenses on Nigerians.

At first glance, the proposal may sound attractive to a population struggling with rising costs. However, the fundamental question is whether restoring the petrol subsidy would provide genuine and sustainable relief or simply postpone the underlying economic problems that Nigeria has struggled with for decades.

Another issue that is begging for political answer and its political consistence, was during the 2022 presidential campaign, when Atiku Abubakar reportedly supported the removal of the fuel subsidy as part of his proposed economic reforms. It therefore raises questions when the same politician is now advocating for the restoration of the petrol subsidy ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

If the argument for restoring the subsidy is primarily to reduce hardship and win public support ahead of an election, Nigerians must be cautious. Economic policy should not be determined by what sounds popular during an election season. Decisions affecting the nation’s finances should instead be based on sustainability, long-term productivity and the overall welfare of citizens.

Restoring the subsidy would also mean that the government would once again have to finance the difference between the actual market cost of petrol and the lower price paid by consumers. Such expenditure could quickly become enormous, particularly when international crude oil prices rise, the naira weakens, or domestic supply conditions deteriorate.

Nigeria’s experience with the subsidy regime demonstrated how difficult it can be for government to sustain such an arrangement indefinitely. Huge public resources were committed to subsidising petroleum consumption, while questions surrounding transparency, accountability, smuggling and subsidy claims remained persistent concerns.

Rather than returning to the old system, the more sustainable approach should be to use the savings and additional revenues generated by reforms to cushion the effects of rising living costs. Investments in efficient mass transportation, roads, healthcare, education, agriculture, security and social protection can provide more lasting benefits than simply keeping petrol prices artificially low.

The Federal Government should therefore continue improving the reform process while introducing stronger measures to protect vulnerable Nigerians. Greater transparency in the petroleum sector, support for domestic refining, improved public transportation and targeted assistance for low-income households can help ensure that the burden of reform is not carried disproportionately by the poorest citizens.

Ultimately, the debate over fuel subsidy should transcend partisan politics. Atiku Abubakar and other political leaders have every right to present alternative economic policies to Nigerians ahead of 2027. But Nigerians also have the responsibility to examine whether those proposals are economically sustainable, consistent with previous positions and capable of solving problems rather than merely postponing them.

The removal of petrol subsidy may not have produced immediate prosperity for every Nigerian, but reversing the policy without addressing the structural problems that necessitated its removal could expose the country to renewed fiscal pressure. The real challenge, therefore, is not simply whether petrol should be subsidised, but how Nigeria can build an economy where citizens no longer depend on cheap petrol as the primary means of surviving rising living costs.

Atiku’s proposal to restore the fuel subsidy should consequently be subjected to serious public debate rather than accepted as an attractive campaign promise. Nigeria needs policies that strengthen its productive capacity, protect vulnerable citizens and create sustainable economic growth. The country cannot afford to repeatedly move forward with difficult reforms today only to reverse them tomorrow for political convenience.

Chief (Mrs.) Esther Orighomisan Okotie-Eboh, DG FOOG Women Support Group for Tinubu writes from Warri, Delta State.